In 2024, the global economy has shown remarkable resilience in its recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. Certain global macroeconomic indicators such as inflation and economic growth rates are projected to remain favourable towards the end of 2024, but growth continues to be dampened and uneven across geographies.
CIB PERFORMANCE AND OUTLOOK IN 2024
The global economy has experienced a great transition over the past several years. After excess demand precipitated across most mature economies after months of pandemic-related stimulus, compounded by supply shocks in Europe due to the Ukraine War, led to record inflation across the world. Towards the tail end of 2024, inflation appears to finally be under control as major central banks set to adjust rates downwards. However, uncertainty and volatility was exacerbated by elections across Europe. The UK and the EU continue to grow quarter-on-quarter, but growth remains outpaced by the US economy. CIBs will benefit from the positive trends in these economies, as lower rates will spur credit demand and by extension M&A activity.
Simultaneously, UK and EU banks stand to benefit from the completion of restructuring programs instigated in previous years and relatively looser proposed Basel III regulations. Based on our panel, CIB top-line growth remained resilient, growing by 4.4% YoY (vs. 2.3% in 2023) while C/I ratios decreased by 3.3% YoY. Nevertheless, banks should continue to widen perspectives and look towards ESG-related targets to gauge overall banking performance.
GENERATIVE AI IN CIB
Generative AI (GenAI) has become high in-demand for businesses across various industries, with purpose-built tools designed to leverage the technology and drive cost-savings. GenAI has the capability to be applied across the entire CIB value chain, with more effective applications in back and middle office functions in labour-intensive, rote tasks that can be automated and streamlined. Several large CIBs have already extensively documented their use of the technology, with research finding enhanced productivity and cost improvements. US CIBs head the movement to invest and cultivate the technology, while UK and EU CIBs are slowly catching up in investment and adoption. However, there are numerous challenges and risks to navigate when designing and deploying the technology at a large scale across a bank such as AI hallucinations, regulatory compliance, and cybersecurity measures. For CIBs to effectively adopt GenAI, a robust AI tool trained with in-depth data points and a robust data architecture should be maintained by a dedicated team of data scientists and engineers, with relevant training given to employees who use the tool to ensure maximum productivity gains.
Generative AI is expected to bring significant benefits to the banking sector
TALENT IN CIB
" In recent years, there has been a boost in diversity and inclusion in France across each echelon of the banking organisation. "
Jean-Baptiste Annat
Partner, Eurogroup Consulting
Parallel with developments in GenAI, talent and workforce composition in the banking sector has undergone great change in recent years. The integration of GenAI across the various functions of a conventional CIB has changed the way in which banks recruit and the types of skillsets and profiles that are targeted. Furthermore, CIBs may face challenges in the near future in attracting the most talented graduates due to increasing competition from other sectors such as big tech, which promises similar renumeration and work experience. The quality of individual employees in both back and front offices have significant impacts on productivity and value creation. In investment banking, deal values and fees are strongly correlated with individual bankers and the distinct value proposition they bring themselves, rather than the collective reputation or assets of the bank. Apart from focusing on monetary compensation, CIBs can do more to attract the next generation of talented graduates. Implementing flexible working arrangements, prioritising ESG objectives in strategic planning, and enshrining Diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) in the CIB’s organisational structure can help make recruitment and retention more robust for future generations.
ABOUT
Eurogroup Consulting London
Specialised in corporate and investment banking, we work alongside the largest banks and financial institutions, to help them face the challenges posed by the fast-evolving market.
Matthieu Prieuret
Partner - UK Office
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